And The Nominee Is…

We’ve entered the silly season, people. The time of year when everybody and their brother with any political aspirations for the White House is poking and sniffing and visiting New Hampshire and putting together a committee to explore the viability of putting together a committee to consider maybe perhaps sort of running for President.

It is 22 months until the Presidential election. Good Lord almighty.

We have front-runners already, particularly on the Democratic side where a swell of confidence following the shellacking they handed the Republicans in the mid-term elections has them brimming with bravado and racing to the Election Commission to get those petitions filed. Not many Republicans have come forward yet, I guess they’re waiting for the tide to go out.

I have to tell you, though, there’s trouble a-brewing. The three Democrats that have the head start are all very different candidates, and the way things are shaping up the party may just squander the momentum they built with the mid-term elections by nominating a candidate that can’t win. Again.

In this corner, Hillary Rodham Clinton. The Republicans are hoping she gets the nod, because any time that gal opens her mouth in public millions of dollars in donations flood into the Republican National Committee. Why? The right supports an all-out effort to make her go away, at any cost. If the Democrats want to be in an election up against a $100 billion war chest, nominate Mrs. Clinton.

In that corner, Barack Obama. This likable and mostly scandal-free politician from my home state was, very literally, having trouble getting anybody to show up at his press conferences not even 10 years ago. But having been tagged as a rising star within the Democratic Party as the Junior Senator from Illinois, the Hawaii-born African-American rode the keynote address slot at the last Democratic Convention to a spot in the public eye. Guess they’re showing up at his press conferences now.

And in the other corner, John Edwards. John Kerry’s running mate in 2004, he was kept largely out of the public eye because he would make Kerry look like the New England stiff that he was. A former U.S. Senator from a southern state, this well-spoken and tele-genic 53-year-old is essentially Bill Clinton without the skeezers: social moderate, financially responsible, very appealing to the middle-American housewife.

So what’s the problem? The Democrats won’t nominate Edwards.

All right, go ahead and get it out of the way: “Sexist bigot fascist yadda-yadda-yadda…” Let me know when you’re finished, and I’ll give you a harsh dose of reality.

I’m ready when you are…

Done? Are you sure? Okay, onward.

You might like Hillary Clinton. I don’t have a problem with Hillary Clinton. I would probably vote for Hillary Clinton, she has to be better than Dick Cheney, John McCain, Jeb Bush (Oh, Christ…), or Romney or Gingrich or Voldemort or whomever the GOP puts on the ballot.

But the fact of the matter is, Hillary Clinton rubs many people the wrong way. She will have a tough time shedding the image that she gained when she was First Lady, which is that she was arrogant and elitist, and didn’t care for stay-at-home moms. Deserved or not, it’s significant enough to affect the outcome of the election, to the point where people will be voting against her instead of for the other guy. That’s a clear signal that a candidate is going to lose.

The other news is less about winning and more about surviving. Though it rarely shows its ugly head nowadays, we often forget that there is still an element in this country that refuses to recognize the black community as equals. These racist losers are ignorant, they are backwards, and fortunately they are slowly dying off. But they are also dead set against having a black man as President, and they are armed. What I’m trying to say is, Barack Obama won’t be elected President in 2008. If he gets the Democratic nomination, he will be assassinated before election day. That’s not me saying I want that to happen, that’s me saying I firmly believe it will happen. I don’t think there is any measure of Secret Service protection that can prevent it.

But the Democrats will ignore all this. In fact, the conundrum about having these two individuals as the early front-runners will be, would they rather think of themselves as racist by nominating Clinton or sexist by nominating Obama? There will be talk-show marathons debating that question for months just preceding the convention.

No, I’m afraid that their only genuine hope will be passed up as the Democratic Party clamors over itself in the rush to nominate one or the other of these two unelectable candidates. Mr. Edwards won’t even get the VP nod this time, as it seems unthinkable that either of these two would choose anyone but the other as their running mate. I believe that the Democratic Party will be so confident of their victory, and so eager to put either the first woman or the first black man in the White House, that they will ignore the fact that it won’t happen in 2008.

Will it happen ever? Oh, yes, eventually. In fact, probably sooner than anyone thinks. For instance, if the Democrats nominate Edwards and he chooses Obama as his VP, and things go their way, I think that’s the way Obama wins the Presidency in 2016. And the first woman? If it’s the right one, maybe sooner than that. But Hillary Rodham Clinton is not, unfortunately for her, the right one, and probably never will be. I can’t see a viable female candidate at this moment, but who knows. Obama was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2002, and now he’s running for President. For the right candidate, anything’s possible.

But for 2008, unless there is a wave of pragmatism sweeping over the Democratic Party in the next 22 months, the GOP is going to have to screw up pretty badly to lose. Let’s hope we don’t get stuck with Voldemort.