Ump on a Blog

Today John McCain announced his choice for Vice President on the Republican ticket. The announcement was a shock to supporters and critics, both of whom expected a more mainstream choice who could add conservative credibility to a ticket that the Right viewed as a disappointment. Some have posited that McCain is trying to shake up the race with an off-beat choice that will draw the young and female voters he currently lacks. But in fact, the choice is strong evidence that the Republican party already realizes that this election is over, and John McCain has lost.

Who gets considered for VP? Somebody who is respected, experienced, with a scandal-free background. Somebody who can deliver certain states or certain demographic groups. But most importantly, somebody who, if the candidate gets re-elected and serves out their second term, can take up the party leadership and deliver another election. In other words, somebody who is fit to be President in eight years.

On the other hand, who accepts the nomination for VP? Somebody who has aspirations to the Presidency. Somebody who feels strongly that they can win the party’s nomination after the current nominee serves out their terms. But most importantly, somebody who believes that the ticket they will be nominated to is going to win.

So let’s look at the list of possibles. Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, and Lieberman were considered the front-runners. All of these people have sought the nomination at one time or another, so all of them obviously have aspiration to the highest office and believe that they can win the party’s nomination at some point. Why were they not on the ticket? Why would the Republican party not try to strengthen the ticket’s conservative credentials by picking a right-wing favorite like Romney or Huckabee, or try to leverage the 9/11 legacy by appointing Giuliani? And why were even outside-choice candidates like Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine apparently ignored?

Because they weren’t ignored, they all turned down the invitation. They know McCain lost this race before the horses even got out of the gate, and they don’t want to be remembered as the second-fiddle on a losing cause.

Any Republican can tell you, John McCain isn’t the candidate they would have liked. In the absence of a clear front-runner for the Republican nomination, the GOP ended up with an early long-shot who happened to hang on in the race long enough to watch others’ campaign funds dry up. He is Pro-Choice and historically turns a blind eye to gay marriage (while not actually supporting it), and for that reason he irks the architects of the Reagan/Bush/Bush dynasty because he doesn’t toe the party line needed to keep the Right Wing support flowing in. But he is not centrist enough to lure independent, young, or minority voters. In short, he will get the votes of the I-vote-Republican-every-time-because-I-don’t-understand-many-three-syllable-words crowd, but the swing voters will never come around, and for that reason he is going to lose.

The front-runners for the VP nomination are not stupid. They can see the writing on the wall as plainly as any observer. They are politicians, and they cover their asses. So when John McCain came calling looking for a VP, they courteously went through the vetting process and then gave the spend-more-time-with-my-family excuse.

Why? Because in 2012 all of these candidates will be able to run for the Republican nomination again. Why go down in flames on a plane somebody else is flying, when you can try to spread your own wings in four years? And for most of these guys, 2012 will be the last chance they have — they will be too old in 2016. If you can only take one trip, don’t get on board a leaky ocean liner.

So what do you do if you’re the McCain camp and the list of those who you thought you had to pick from shortens to zero? You get desperate. You look in odd places, you lower your standards, and you consider people who two months ago would have been a laugh-out-loud joke to even mention. You keep your mouth shut about who is on your short list, and you delay committing to anybody until the last possible moment. In their case, they panicked for weeks as one candidate after the other fell by the way side, then they went as far off the beaten track as they possibly could and found the local dog-catcher.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is a small-town Mayor turned first-term Governor, and despite being popular in her home state, is a nearly complete unknown outside party headquarters. It could be argued that any Housing Association president inside the Beltway has a more visible track record and better name recognition. The loudest reaction from the public upon hearing the announcement was, “Who?” The press tried to suppress their giggles while desperately attempting to dig up any information about this woman, and the high-fives inside the Democratic National Committee headquarters could be heard for miles around. It was a clear sign that once again the Republicans had to settle for what was left after the dust settled.

What does the ticket gain from this? Palin is young and telegenic, and since she knows that this will be her last shot at establishing a presence on a national scale, you will see her everywhere. Beyond that, the rest of the news is predominantly negative.

The initial semi-positive reaction from women voters will gradually fade, and few will come to see this as more than a desperate attempt to lure a new demographic. Being from Alaska is going to be a hindrance, inviting jokes about eating moose burgers, pandering to lumberjacks, campaigning by dogsled, and fighting off grizzly bears. She has to avoid the issue of abortion rights like the plague, since coming out as pro-choice will drive away women conservatives, and coming out as pro-life will drive away women independents. But Palin’s worst nightmare will come in the form of a jewel-toned pants suit…

Hillary Clinton is not going to take this sitting down. She and her supporters are of like mind on one thing: if there is going to be a woman President during Hillary Clinton’s lifetime, it is going to be Hillary Clinton. Hillary will take this as an affront to her personally, and will hit the campaign trail like she never intended prior to this announcement. She will work tirelessly to make sure that nobody has the opportunity to usurp her rightful place in history. So the attempt to lure disaffected Hillary voters is going to backfire dramatically, and at best Palin will only be able to deliver a small percentage of the demographic she is targeting.

This is the strongest indication to date that even the Republican party believes that this election is all over but for the crying. The GOP will re-group, try to groom somebody on the national scene to take up the fight in 2012. But there will be a new President sworn in come January, and it will not be John McCain.